Standler's Essays on Syria & Iraq:
Chemical Weapons in Syria
Futile Peace Negotiations for Syria
U.S. Government response to ISIL

Copyright 2014-2019 by Ronald B. Standler

Introduction

By way of introduction, I was educated as a physicist (Ph.D. 1977), was a professor of electrical engineering for ten years, and I have been an attorney in Massachusetts since 1998. I have been interested in science and public policy since the 1960s, and I sometimes post at my website essays that preserve historical details on some topic.

There has been a civil war in Syria since March 2011 that diplomats have been unable to stop. On 8 Sep 2013, I decided to collect and preserve some of the historical details of the removal of chemical weapons from Syria and the futile peace negotiations for Syria.

While the principal purpose of this webpage is to provide an annotated list of my essays on the civil war in Syria, I also include:
I had intended to quit writing on Syria at the end of June 2014, when all of the declared chemical weapons had been removed from Syria, and peace negotiations were not feasible for the foreseeable future. But the capture of Mosul, Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on 10 June 2014 — as well as the declaration of the Islamic State's caliphate on 29 June 2014 — changed the Western view of the insurgency in Syria. In June 2014, I began including historical details about Iraq in my contemporaneous essays on Syria.

My essays on Syria and Iraq focus on five topics:
  1. chemical weapons: use and removal
  2. futile peace negotiations for Syria
  3. the response of the U.S. Government to ISIL in Iraq and Syria
  4. the dysfunctional Iraqi government (June 2014 to Oct 2015)
  5. chronicling major Islamic terrorist attacks in Europe and the USA (beginning January 2015)

Standler's Essays on Syria & Iraq

On 25 July 2018, my 48 essays include more than 14,850 links to news articles and documents, and total 5407 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.
  1. My first essay on Syria covers dates from 8 Sep 2013 to 5 Oct 2013, and chronicled the history of: My first essay contains 190 links to news articles and documents, and 62 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  2. My second essay about Syria covers dates from 6 Oct 2013 to 31 Dec 2013, and chronicled the history of: My second essay contains more than 495 links to news articles and documents, and 129 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  3. My essay for January 2014 chronicled the history of: My third essay contains more than 315 links to news articles and documents, and 89 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  4. My essay for February 2014 chronicled the history of: My fourth essay contains more than 270 links to news articles and documents, and 101 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  5. My essay for March 2014 chronicled the history of: My fifth essay contains more than 185 links to news articles and documents, and 59 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  6. My essay for April 2014 chronicled the history of: My sixth essay contains more than 235 links to news articles and documents, and 75 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  7. My essay for May 2014 chronicled the history of: My seventh essay contains more than 195 links to news articles and documents, and 90 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  8. My essay for June 2014 continues coverage of Syria and begins to cover Iraq. My eighth essay chronicled the history of: My eighth essay contains more than 345 links to news articles and documents, and 89 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  9. My essay for July 2014 chronicled the history of: My ninth essay contains more than 320 links to news articles and documents, and 82 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary. (The daily news from Iraq for 28 July 2014 mentions Obama called ISIL "junior varsity" terrorists in January 2014.)

  10. My essay for August 2014 chronicled the history of: My tenth essay contains more than 460 links to news articles and documents, and 142 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  11. My essay for September 2014 chronicled the history of: My eleventh essay contains more than 345 links to news articles and documents, and 148 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  12. My essay for October 2014 chronicled the history of: My twelfth essay contains more than 275 links to news articles and documents, and 86 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  13. My essay for November 2014 chronicled the history of: My thirteenth essay contains more than 185 links to news articles and documents, and 63 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  14. My essay for December 2014 chronicled the history of: My fourteenth essay contains more than 205 links to news articles and documents, and 61 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  15. My essay for Jan 2015 chronicled the history of: My fifteenth essay contains more than 290 links to news articles and documents, and 84 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  16. My essay for Feb 2015 chronicled the history of: My sixteenth essay contains more than 310 links to news articles and documents, and 87 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  17. My essay for March 2015 chronicled the history of: My seventeenth essay contains more than 360 links to news articles and documents, and 81 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  18. My essay for April 2015 chronicled the history of: My eighteenth essay contains more than 240 links to news articles and documents, and 86 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  19. My essay for May 2015 chronicled the history of: My nineteenth essay contains more than 400 links to news articles and documents, and 101 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  20. My essay for June 2015 chronicled the history of: My twentieth essay contains more than 285 links to news articles and documents, and 102 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  21. My essay for July 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 21th essay contains more than 455 links to news articles and documents, and 121 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  22. My essay for August 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 22th essay contains more than 368 links to news articles and documents, and 109 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  23. My essay for September 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 23th essay contains more than 354 links to news articles and documents, and 123 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  24. My essay for October 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 24th essay contains more than 585 links to news articles and documents, and 142 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  25. My essay for November 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 25th essay contains more than 368 links to news articles and documents, and 108 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  26. My essay for December 2015 chronicled the history of:
    My 26th essay contains more than 375 links to news articles and documents, and 113 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  27. My essay for January 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 27th essay contains more than 270 links to news articles and documents, and 113 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  28. My essay for February 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 28th essay contains more than 287 links to news articles and documents, and 116 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  29. My essay for March 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 29th essay contains more than 385 links to news articles and documents, and 146 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  30. My essay for April 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 30th essay contains more than 318 links to news articles and documents, and 166 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  31. My essay for May 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 31th essay contains more than 355 links to news articles and documents, and 180 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  32. My essay for June 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 32th essay contains more than 395 links to news articles and documents, and 152 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  33. My essay for July 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 33th essay contains more than 390 links to news articles and documents, and 156 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  34. My essay for August 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 34th essay contains more than 288 links to news articles and documents, and 130 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary.

  35. My essay for September 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 35th essay contains 234 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 450 links to news articles and documents. This essay is longer than any of my previous essays, because it chronicles the creation of new agreements for Syria on 9 Sep, the prompt collapse of the new ceasefire in Syria, and the end of hope for resuming negotiations in Geneva.

  36. My essay for October 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 36th essay contains 158 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 370 links to news articles and documents.

  37. My essay for November 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 37th essay contains 122 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 240 links to news articles and documents.

  38. My essay for December 2016 chronicled the history of:
    My 38th essay contains 171 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 352 links to news articles and documents.

  39. My essay for January 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 39th essay contains 81 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 120 links to news articles and documents.

  40. My essay for February 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 40th essay contains 86 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 135 links to news articles and documents.

  41. My essay for March 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 41th essay contains 104 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 173 links to news articles and documents.

  42. My essay for April 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 42th essay contains 101 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 230 links to news articles and documents.

  43. My essay for May 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 43th essay contains 91 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 145 links to news articles and documents.

  44. My essay for June 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 44th essay contains 94 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 165 links to news articles and documents.

  45. My essay for July 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 45th essay contains 88 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 100 links to news articles and documents.

  46. My essay for August/September 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 46th essay contains 106 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 170 links to news articles and documents.

  47. My essay for October/November/December 2017 chronicled the history of:
    My 47th essay contains 137 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 275 links to news articles and documents.

  48. My essay for January to June 2018 chronicled the history of:
    My 48th essay contains 142 pages of facts, quotations, and my commentary, and more than 830 links to news articles and documents.

  49. My essay for July to December 2018 — with some information during January and February 2019 — will chronicle the history of:


During 27 May to 10 June 2014, I revisited the topic of why the Geneva2 negotiations failed during Jan/Feb 2014 and wrote a 20-page review that summarized what was in my first eight essays and added some new information. The "transitional governing body" (TGB) mentioned in the Geneva1 Communiqué is flawed: (1) no one from Syria attended the Geneva1 meeting and (2) the situation in Syria changed before the negotiations began, so we no longer need a transitional government in Syria. I also discuss the problems in finding a suitable political opposition to negotiate with the lawful government of Assad. I conclude that the Syrian National Coalition is unworthy to lead Syria, but in 2014 there was no other acceptable political opposition to Assad.

Since July 2011, President Obama and two U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, have been declaring that Assad had lost his legitimacy to lead Syria. My document collects more than thirty quotations of their dogma about Assad. In mid-2013, when Islamic terrorists hijacked the Syrian civil war, the USA could not partner with Assad in fighting Islamic terrorism, because of this dogma.

My essays for August and September 2014 give a contemporary account of how and why the USA became involved in wars in Iraq and Syria that were initially expected to persist at least until 2017, and possibly beyond the year 2035.

Beginning with my essay for June 2016, I tersely discuss how the U.S. war against Islamic terrorism has caused ISIL to encourage or sponsor more attacks in Western Europe and the USA. The U.S. war against Islamic terrorism began in the year 2001, and after spending many tens of billions of dollars, we are now less safe than before. This should be an immense scandal.

Links to Documents on Syria

To assist students, I provide links to some difficult-to-find documents on the Syrian civil war.

Table of Contents I have posted copies of some of the public-domain (i.e., noncopyrighted) historical documents at my personal website, rbs0.com  . (In April 2015, when I was revising this collection of links, I noticed that webmasters at government and U.N. websites had already deleted some historical documents from the years 2012 and 2013. The United Nations website was unable to download documents to readers from 16 May 2014 until January 2015, which was an additional reason to post copies of U.N. documents elsewhere.)

Friends of the Syrian People

Hillary Clinton, then the U.S. Secretary of State, created the "Friends of the Syrian People" — also known as "Friends of Syria" — which had one-day meetings of foreign ministers that began on 24 Feb 2012. These foreign ministers are all opposed to the Assad regime in Syria.
  1. Chairman's Conclusions in Tunisia, 24 Feb 2012   (copy)   (copy)
  2. Chairman's Conclusions in Istanbul, 1 April 2012 (copy) (copy)
  3. Chairman's Conclusions in Paris, 6 July 2012   (copy)
  4. Chairman's Conclusions in Marrakech, Morocco, 12 Dec 2012 (copy at rbs0.com)
  5. Communiqué in Rome, 28 Feb 2013
  6. Working Group on Sanctions Communiqué in Ottawa, 25 June 2013   (PDF)
  7. Chairman's Statement in New York City, 26 Sep 2013 (on sidelines of a United Nations General Assembly meeting)
The Friends of the Syrian People "Core Group" of eleven nations — Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the USA — became known as the "London11" at a meeting in London on 22 Oct 2013. At the end of each one-day meeting, a Communiqué was issued, which I have downloaded, edited to make a smaller HTML file (while accurately preserving all text of the Communiqué), and posted at my website, rbs0.com:
  1. Core Group Statement in Istanbul, 20 April 2013, copy at rbs0.com
  2. Core Group Statement in Amman, Jordan on 22 May 2013, copy at rbs0.com
  3. Core Group Communiqué in Doha, Qatar on 22 June 2013, copy at rbs0.com
  4. London-11 Communiqué in London on 22 Oct 2013, copy at rbs0.com
  5. London-11 Communiqué in Paris on 12 Jan 2014, copy at rbs0.com
  6. London-11 Communiqué in London on 15 May 2014, copy at rbs0.com
  7. Friends of Syria Ministerial Communiqué in New York City on 25 Sep 2014, copy at rbs0.com
  8. London-11 Communiqué in London on 10 Nov 2014, copy at rbs0.com
  9. Statement by Jean-Marc Ayrault on the meeting in Paris on 9 May 2016, copy at rbs0.com.

  10. Friends of Syria meeting in London on 7 Sep 2016 has no communiqué. Copy of 25-page HNC plan for political transition is at RiadHijab.com.   There is another copy posted at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, where the Friends of Syria meeting was held. The Institute also posted a copy of the slides shown by Riad Hijab during his presentation.

  11. The Friends of Syria met in New York City on 18 Sep 2017, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting. Joint Statement.   Copy at: rbs0.com


Coalition Against ISIL (beginning Sep 2014)

  1. Kerry/Hagel statement sidelines of NATO meeting (5 Sep 2014)

  2. Jeddah Communiqué (11 Sep 2014), copy at rbs0.com

  3. "International Conference on Peace and Security in Iraq," Paris Communiqué (15 Sep 2014), copy at rbs0.com

  4. Joint Statement Issued by Partners at the Counter-ISIL Coalition Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, (3 Dec 2014),   copy at rbs0.com

  5. Counter-ISIL Coalition meeting in London (22 Jan 2015), U.K. press release, copy at rbs0.com

  6. Small Group meeting in Jordan (8 April 2015), Readout.

  7. Counter-ISIL Coalition meeting in Paris (2 June 2015), Declaration of the Co-Chairs, copy at rbs0.com

  8. Small Group meeting in Québec City (30 July 2015), Canada.

  9. "Statement by the Members of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL: The Coalition at One Year," Sixth Ministerial Meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum in New York City, U.S. State Dept, 28 Sep 2015.

  10. "Leaders' Summit on Countering ISIL and Violent Extremism," White House, 29 Sep 2015.

  11. Small Group meeting in Belgium (4 November 2015), U.S. State Dept.

  12. Meeting of Defense Ministers of Australia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the USA in Paris (20 Jan 2016). Joint Statement at USA;   Netherlands;   Australia.

  13. Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Small Group of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL in Rome (2 Feb 2016). Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  14. Meeting of 28 Defense Ministers in Brussels (11 Feb 2016). Statement at rbs0.com

  15. Meeting of Small Group of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL in Kuwait (27 April 2016). Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  16. "Plenary Meeting of the Global Coalition to Counter-ISIL," in Washington, DC, (10 June 2016). Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  17. "Joint Statement by Foreign and Defense Ministers of the Expanded Small Group of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL/Daesh," in Washington, DC, (21 July 2016). Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  18. "High-level meeting for the stabilization of Mosul — Co-chairs’ conclusions (October 20, 2016)," Statement at France.

  19. "Meeting of the Small Group of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL in [Berlin] Germany," (17 Nov 2016) Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  20. "Plenary Meeting of the Global Coalition to Counter-ISIL," (28 Nov 2016) Statement at U.S. State Dept.

  21. "Statement by Ministers of the Global Coalition: Meeting on the Defeat of ISIS," (22 Mar 2017) Statement.

  22. "Readout of the Meeting of the Small Group of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Jordan," (15 Nov 2017) U.S. State Dept.

  23. "Joint Statement of Guiding Principles From the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS," (13 Feb 2018) U.S. State Dept.

  24. "Readout of the Meeting in Morocco of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS," U.S. State Dept, 26 June 2018.

  25. "Meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS at NATO HQ," U.S. State Dept, 12 July 2018.

  26. "Statement by Ministers of the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS/DAESH," U.S. State Dept, 6 Feb 2019.   Also see terse three-paragraph statement in United Nations document S/2019/146.

    "List of Participants: Meeting of the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS," U.S. State Dept, 6 Feb 2019.

  27. "Joint Statement on Syria," U.S. State Dept, 5 April 2019. (U.S., France, U.K. threaten Assad if he uses chemical weapons again.)


Links to U.N. General Assembly documents

United Nations General Assembly Resolutions are nonbinding, and generally insignificant. Here are the General Assembly Resolutions on the Syrian civil war, as of 23 Dec 2016:
  1. Resolution A/RES/66/176 (19 Dec 2011).
  2. Resolution A/RES/66/253A (16 Feb 2012).
  3. Resolution A/RES/66/253B (3 Aug 2012).
  4. Resolution A/RES/67/183 (20 Dec 2012).
  5. Resolution A/RES/67/262 (15 May 2013).
  6. Resolution A/RES/68/182 (18 Dec 2013).
  7. Resolution A/RES/69/189 (18 Dec 2014).
  8. Resolution A/RES/70/234 (23 Dec 2015).
  9. Resolution A/RES/71/130 futile attempt to end Syrian civil war (9 Dec 2016).
  10. Resolution A/RES/71/203 (19 Dec 2016).
  11. Resolution A/RES/71/248 investigation of war crimes (21 Dec 2016).

Links to U.N. Security Council documents

United Nations Security Council Resolutions on Syria:
  1. Resolution S/RES/2042, supporting Kofi Annan's 6-point plan (14 April 2012).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  2. Resolution S/RES/2043, deploys U.N. observers in Syria (21 April 2012).

  3. Resolution S/RES/2059, renews U.N. mission in Syria for 30 days (20 July 2012).

  4. Resolution S/RES/2118, for destruction of chemical weapons (27 Sep 2013).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  5. Resolution S/RES/2139, for humanitarian aid in Syria (22 Feb 2014).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  6. Resolution S/RES/2165, repairs defects in Resolution 2139 (14 July 2014).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  7. Resolution S/RES/2170, condemns ISIL & Al-Nusra Front (15 Aug 2014).

  8. Resolution S/RES/2175, protection of civilians in armed conflict, etc. (29 Aug 2014).

  9. Resolution S/RES/2178, condemns ISIL and Nusra Front (24 Sep 2014).

  10. Resolution S/RES/2191, renews humanitarian aid under Resolution 2165 (17 Dec 2014).

  11. Resolution S/RES/2199, condemns sale of oil by ISIL and Nusra (12 Feb 2015).

  12. Resolution S/RES/2209, chlorine gas in Syria (6 Mar 2015).

  13. Resolution S/RES/2235, Asks who released chemical weapons in Syria? (7 Aug 2015).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  14. Resolution S/RES/2249, Calls on all nations to "take all necessary measures" to fight against ISIL. (20 Nov 2015).

  15. Resolution S/RES/2253, ISIL & Al-Qaida Sanctions (17 Dec 2015).

  16. Resolution S/RES/2254, endorses ISSG (18 Dec 2015).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  17. Resolution S/RES/2258, renews humanitarian aid under Resolution 2165 (22 Dec 2015).

  18. Resolution S/RES/2268, endorses Russia/USA draft cessation of hostilities agreement (26 Feb 2016).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  19. Resolution S/RES/2328, sends U.N. observers to Aleppo (19 Dec 2016).

  20. Resolution S/RES/2332, renews humanitarian aid under Resolution 2165 (21 Dec 2016).

  21. Resolution S/RES/2336, welcomes Russian/Turkish negotiations (31 Dec 2016).

  22. Resolution S/RES/2393, renews humanitarian aid to Syria (19 Dec 2017).

  23. Resolution S/RES/2401, 30-day ceasefire and humanitarian aid in Syria (24 Feb 2018).

  24. Resolution S/RES/2449, renews humanitarian aid to Syria (13 Dec 2018).

United Nations Security Council Presidential Statements are legally nonbinding. Statements are issued when there is a strong consensus, but one permanent member vetoes a draft resolution. Other times a Statement is issued to express a consensus when no one needs to be commanded to do something. Here are some of the Presidential Statements on Syria:
  1. S/PRST/2011/16 (3 Aug 2011).

  2. S/PRST/2012/6 (21 March 2012).

  3. S/PRST/2012/10 (5 April 2012).

  4. S/PRST/2013/15 "appalled at the unacceptable and escalating level of violence" in Syria (2 Oct 2013).   Copy at rbs0.com.

  5. S/PRST/2015/10 "expresses grave alarm" at humanitarian crisis in Syria (24 April 2015).

  6. S/PRST/2015/15 (17 Aug 2015) (Endorses de Mistura's efforts.).   Copy at rbs0.com.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 2139 (22 Feb 2014) — and later Resolutions 2165, 2191, 2258, 2332, and 2393 — require the Secretary General to submit monthly reports to the Security Council. These relatively unbiased reports chronicle what is happening in Syria, including political and military developments, human rights, and delivery of humanitarian aid:
  1. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/208 (24 Mar 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  2. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/295 (23 Apr 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  3. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/365 (22 May 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  4. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/427 (20 June 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  5. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/525 (23 July 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  6. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/611 (21 Aug 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  7. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/696 (24 Sep 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  8. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/756 (23 Oct 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  9. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2014/840 (21 Nov 2014);   copy at rbs0.com

  10. Secretary General Ban's Report for December 2014 is missing.

  11. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/48 (22 Jan 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  12. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/124 (19 Feb 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  13. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/206 (23 Mar 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  14. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/264 (17 Apr 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  15. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/368 (22 May 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  16. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/468 (23 June 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  17. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/561 (23 July 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  18. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/651 (20 Aug 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  19. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/698 (10 Sep 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  20. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/813 (22 Oct 2015);   copy at rbs0.com

  21. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/862 (11 Nov 2015)

  22. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2015/962 (11 Dec 2015)

  23. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/60 (21 Jan 2016)

  24. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/156 (18 Feb 2016)

  25. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/272 (23 Mar 2016)

  26. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/384 (26 Apr 2016)

  27. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/460 (19 May 2016)

  28. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/546 (17 June 2016)

  29. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/631 (20 July 2016)

  30. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/714 (16 Aug 2016)

  31. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/796 (16 Sep 2016)

  32. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/873 (18 Oct 2016)

  33. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/962 (15 Nov 2016)

  34. Secretary General Ban's Report S/2016/1057 (14 Dec 2016)

  35. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/58 (20 Jan 2017)

  36. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/144 (16 Feb 2017)

  37. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/244 (22 Mar 2017)

  38. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/339 (19 Apr 2017)

  39. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/445 (23 May 2017)

  40. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/541 (23 June 2017)

  41. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/623 (21 July 2017)

  42. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/733 (24 Aug 2017)

  43. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/794 (21 Sep 2017)

  44. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/902 (25 Oct 2017)

  45. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/982 (16 Nov 2017)

  46. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2017/1057 (15 Dec 2017)

  47. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/60 (23 Jan 2018)

  48. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/138 (20 Feb 2018)

  49. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/243 (20 Mar 2018)

  50. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/369 (19 Apr 2018)

  51. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/484 (22 May 2018)

  52. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/619 (20 June 2018)

  53. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/724 (20 July 2018)

  54. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/777 (22 Aug 2018)

  55. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/845 (14 Sep 2018)

  56. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/947 (23 Oct 2018)

  57. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/1041 (21 Nov 2018)

  58. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2018/1104 (11 Dec 2018)

  59. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2019/157 (19 Feb 2019) — begin bimonthly

  60. Secretary General Guterres' Report S/2019/321 (16 Apr 2019)


Links to Geneva Negotiations

  1. Geneva1 Communiqué of 30 June 2012, by The Action Group for Syria.   U.N.;   U.N. Geneva.   Copy at rbs0.com.

  2. United Nations Geneva2 (22 Jan 2014 to 15 Feb 2014)
  3. The press releases, statements, and transcripts of press briefings at the U.N. Geneva website are poorly organized into subdirectories:
    1. Geneva Consultations on Syria (5 Aug 2015 to 22 July 2016)
    2. Intra-Syrian Negotiations (4 April 2017 to current)
    3. Intra-Syrian Talks (14 Nov 2015 to 31 Dec 2016)
    In August 2018, I noticed that the U.N. Geneva Office had deleted some historic documents from this section of its website. For example, the "Geneva Consultations on Syria" had been moved without notice of the new location.

  4. The United Nations Spokesman for the Secretary General in New York posts transcripts of some of the briefings by the Secretary General's Envoy for Syria.

Links to U.N. Secretary General's Envoys for Syria

  1. The U.N. Secretary General's first Envoy for Syria, Kofi Annan, resigned because of frustration on 2 August 2012. Annan's eloquent resignation speech is posted at U.N.;   The Telegraph;   and rbs0.com

  2. The U.N. Secretary General's second Envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, resigned because of frustration on 13 May 2014. U.N. Geneva Office posted documents on the "Geneva Conference on Syria 22 Jan to 15 Feb 2014."   The Secretary General's announcement of Brahimi's resignation and a brief speech by Brahimi are posted at U.N.

  3. The U.N. Secretary General's third Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, resigned at the end of December 2018. The U.N. Geneva Office posted documents on
    1. "Geneva Consultations on Syria" during 2015.
    2. "Intra-Syrian Peace Process" during 2016.
    3. "Intra-Syrian talks — UN Special Envoy Statements and Press Briefings": Transcripts of Security Council Briefings, Press Conferences, and Statements from 9 Jan 2016 to 20 Dec 2018.

    Mediator's Summary issued by de Mistura on 28 April 2016. Copy at: www.rbs0.com.

  4. The U.N. Secretary General's fourth Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, began work on 7 January 2019. Transcripts of Security Council Briefings, Press Conferences, and Statements beginning 18 Feb 2016, posted at U.N. Geneva office.

Other Links to Documents on Syria

Full-text of statements from the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) that met on 30 Oct 2015, 14 Nov 2015, 11 Feb 2016, and 17 May 2016 is posted at rbs0.com

Full-text of agreements on a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria and statements from the Astana meetings is posted at rbs0.com

Links to Chemical Weapons in Syria

In 2013, the U.N. Secretary General commissioned Prof. Åke Sellström to investigate whether chemical weapons had been used in Syria. There are two reports:
  1. Report on use of Sarin at Ghouta on 21 Aug 2013, 41 pp. (13 Sep 2013).   Also at S/2013/553

  2. Final Report on use of nerve gas in Syria, 82 pp. (12 Dec 2013).   Also at S/2013/735

OPCW Executive Council original schedule for destruction of chemical weapons in Syria (15 Nov 2013).   Copy at rbs0.com.

The monthly reports on chemical weapons in Syria from OPCW to the U.N. Security Council:
  1. OPCW First Monthly Report, S/2013/629 (28 October 2013).

  2. OPCW Second Monthly Report, S/2013/700 (27 November 2013).

  3. OPCW Third Monthly Report, S/2013/774 (27 December 2013).

  4. OPCW Fourth Monthly Report, S/2014/52 (27 January 2014). (first delivery of chemical weapons from Syria)

  5. OPCW Fifth Monthly Report, S/2014/133 (27 February 2014).

  6. OPCW Sixth Monthly Report, S/2014/220 (26 March 2014).

  7. OPCW Seventh Monthly Report, S/2014/300 (25 April 2014).

  8. OPCW Eighth Monthly Report, S/2014/368 (23 May 2014).

  9. OPCW Ninth Monthly Report, S/2014/444 (26 June 2014). (final delivery of chemical weapons from Syria)

  10. OPCW Tenth Monthly Report, S/2014/533 (25 July 2014).

  11. OPCW Eleventh Monthly Report, S/2014/622 (25 August 2014).

  12. OPCW Twelfth Monthly Report, S/2014/706 (26 September 2014). (OPCW/UN Mission in Syria ended 30 Sep 2014.)

  13. OPCW 13th Monthly Report, S/2014/767 (27 October 2014).

  14. OPCW 14th Monthly Report, S/2014/853 (28 November 2014).

  15. OPCW 15th Monthly Report, S/2014/948 (26 December 2014).

  16. OPCW 16th Monthly Report, S/2015/56 (26 January 2015).

  17. OPCW 17th Monthly Report, S/2015/138 (25 February 2015). (includes three fact-finding reports from 2014)

  18. OPCW 18th Monthly Report, S/2015/211 (25 March 2015).

  19. OPCW 19th Monthly Report, S/2015/295 (28 April 2015).

  20. OPCW 20th Monthly Report, S/2015/391 (28 May 2015).

  21. OPCW Monthly Report for June 2015, S/2015/485 (26 June 2015).

  22. OPCW Monthly Report for July 2015, S/2015/572 (29 July 2015).

  23. OPCW Monthly Report for Aug 2015, S/2015/668 (27 Aug 2015).

  24. OPCW Monthly Report for Sep 2015, S/2015/737 (24 Sep 2015).

  25. OPCW Monthly Report for Oct 2015, S/2015/820 (26 Oct 2015).

  26. OPCW Monthly Report for Nov 2015, S/2015/908 (24 Nov 2015) (6.6 Megabyte PDF file includes three fact-finding reports on Syria.).

  27. OPCW Monthly Report for Dec 2015, S/2015/1049 (29 Dec 2015).

  28. OPCW Monthly Report for January 2016, S/2016/85 (28 Jan 2016) (3.1 Megabyte PDF file includes 25 Jan 2016 fact-finding report on a dozen incidents in Syria during 2014.).

  29. OPCW Monthly Report for Feb 2016, S/2016/196 (26 Feb 2016).

  30. OPCW Monthly Report for March 2016, S/2016/285 (29 Mar 2016).

  31. OPCW Monthly Report for April 2016, S/2016/391 (27 April 2016).

  32. OPCW Monthly Report for May 2016, S/2016/494 (27 May 2016).

  33. OPCW Monthly Report for June 2016, S/2016/577 (27 June 2016).

  34. OPCW Monthly Report for July 2016, S/2016/678 (3 August 2016).

  35. OPCW Monthly Report for August 2016, S/2016/748 (29 August 2016).

  36. OPCW Monthly Report for September 2016, S/2016/825 (29 September 2016).

  37. OPCW Monthly Report for October 2016, S/2016/928 (2 November 2016).

  38. OPCW Monthly Report for November 2016, S/2016/998 (29 November 2016).

  39. OPCW Monthly Report for December 2016, S/2016/1131 (29 December 2016).

  40. OPCW Monthly Report for January 2017, S/2017/86 (30 Jan 2017).

  41. OPCW Monthly Report for February 2017, S/2017/175 (27 Feb 2017).

  42. OPCW Monthly Report for March 2017, S/2017/260 (28 March 2017).

  43. OPCW Monthly Report for April 2017, S/2017/373 (28 April 2017).

  44. OPCW Monthly Report for May 2017, S/2017/469 (30 May 2017).

  45. OPCW Monthly Report for June 2017, S/2017/564 (29 June 2017).

  46. OPCW Monthly Report for July 2017, S/2017/658 (28 July 2017).

  47. OPCW Monthly Report for August 2017, S/2017/756 (29 Aug 2017).

  48. OPCW Monthly Report for September 2017, S/2017/815 (27 Sep 2017).

  49. OPCW Monthly Report for October 2017, S/2017/916 (30 Oct 2017).

  50. OPCW Monthly Report for November 2017, S/2017/1005 (30 Nov 2017).

  51. OPCW Monthly Report for December 2017, S/2017/1119 (27 Dec 2017).

  52. OPCW Monthly Report for January 2018, S/2018/84 (1 Feb 2018).

  53. OPCW Monthly Report for February 2018, S/2018/182 (5 March 2018).

  54. OPCW Monthly Report for March 2018, S/2018/283 (28 March 2018).

  55. OPCW Monthly Report for April 2018, S/2018/408 (1 May 2018).

  56. OPCW Monthly Report for May 2018, S/2018/523 (1 June 2018).

  57. OPCW Monthly Report for June 2018, S/2018/644 (27 June 2018).

  58. OPCW Monthly Report for July 2018, S/2018/745 (30 July 2018).

  59. OPCW Monthly Report for August 2018, S/2018/804 (31 Aug 2018).

  60. OPCW Monthly Report for September 2018, S/2018/875 (27 Sep 2018).

  61. OPCW Monthly Report for October 2018, S/2018/971 (31 Oct 2018).

  62. OPCW Monthly Report for November 2018, S/2018/1071 (30 Nov 2018).

  63. OPCW Monthly Report for December 2018, S/2018/1166 (27 Dec 2018).

  64. OPCW Monthly Report for January 2019, S/2019/91 (29 Jan 2019).

  65. OPCW Monthly Report for February 2019, S/2019/201 (1 Mar 2019).

  66. OPCW Monthly Report for March 2019, S/2019/279 (28 Mar 2019).

OPCW Fact-Finding Missions on Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria

Beginning in 2014, OPCW conducted Fact-Finding Missions (FFM) to determine whether chemical weapons had been used in Syria. These FFM do not determine who released chemical weapons. (Who used chemical weapons is a matter for the JIM to determine.) OPCW has a webpage that lists some of the reports of the FFM to the United Nations Security Council.
  1. On 16 June 2014, OPCW issued the first report from its Fact-Finding Mission, which covered 3 May to 31 May 2014. S/1191/2014.

  2. A summary of FFM work in May 2014 and the second and third FFM reports (10 Sep 2014 and 18 Dec 2014) are publicly disclosed in a 116-page letter from nine nations to the U.N. Security Council, at S/2014/955 (30 Dec 2014). Later, these three fact-finding reports were also included in the OPCW monthly report for February 2015, S/2015/138.

  3. OPCW issued three fact-finding reports on 29 Oct 2015, which are included in the OPCW monthly report for November 2015. The OPCW Technical Secretariat assigned report numbers, however these three reports are not publicly available from OPCW:
    1. S/1318/2015, inconclusive results from Jober on 29 Aug 2014.

    2. S/1319/2015, chlorine in Idlib during March 2015 to May 2015.

    3. S/1320/2015, sulfur mustard in Marea on 21 Aug 2015.
    These three reports are bundled in the OPCW monthly report to the U.N. Security Council for November 2015, S/2015/908.

  4. OPCW Fact-Finding Report on use of chemical weapons at Jober on 29 Aug 2014, Darayya on 15 Feb 2015, and ten other incidents is included with the OPCW monthly report to the U.N. Security Council for January 2016, S/2016/85. The Syrian government complained to OPCW about alleged use of chemical weapons by insurgents, but when OPCW investigated, then the Syrian government did not cooperate adequately.

  5. Addendum to report on incident at Darayya on 15 February 2015 is included in OPCW's monthly report to the U.N. Security Council for March 2016, S/2016/285.

  6. S/2017/45, report on 2 Aug 2016 incident, plus summary of 2016 fact-finding missions. (17 Jan 2017).

  7. S/2017/400, report on 16 Sep 2016 release of sulfur mustard in Aleppo province. (5 May 2017).

  8. S/2017/440, status update of the OPCW fact-finding mission in Syria about the 4 April 2017 release of nerve gas at Khan Shaykhun. (19 May 2017).

  9. "Note by the technical secretariat — Report of the OPCW fact-finding mission in Syria regarding an alleged incident in Khan Shaykhun, Syrian Arab Republic April 2017," OPCW, (29 June 2017). Also available as a U.N. Security Council document, S/2017/567.

  10. "Further clarifications of why the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons fact-finding mission in the Syrian Arab Republic did not deploy to Khan Shaykhun," S/2017/905 (27 Oct 2017).

  11. "Fact-Finding Mission in the Syrian Arab Republic regarding an alleged incident in Lataminah, Syrian Arab Republic, 30 March 2017," S/2017/931 (6 Nov 2017).

  12. "Summary update of the activities carried out by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons fact-finding mission in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2017," Aleppo City Oct/Dec 2016, Saraqib 1 Aug 2016, Kafr Zita 1 Oct 2016, South Idlib and north Hama 30 March 2017, S/2017/980 (20 Nov 2017).

  13. Fact-Finding Report concludes that chlorine gas was likely used at Saraqib on 4 Feb 2018. S/2018/478 (17 May 2018).

  14. Fact-Finding Report concludes Sarin was very likely used as a chemical weapon in the south of Lataminah on 24 March 2017, and chlorine was used as a weapon at Lataminah Hospital on 25 March 2017. S/2018/620 (19 June 2018).

  15. Interim report on use of chlorine at Douma on 7 April 2018, and two other fact-finding reports. S/2018/732 (23 July 2018).

  16. Final report on use of chlorine at Douma on 7 April 2018. OPCW (1 Mar 2019).


Who Used Chemical Weapons in Syria?

On 7 August 2015, United Nations Security Council Resolution 2235 established an OPCW-United Nations Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM). This Resolution led to the following documents:
  1. 27 Aug 2015 Letter from the U.N. Secretary General proposing a three-man committee, plus technical experts to do the forensic and chemical work. S/2015/669

  2. 9 Sep 2015 Letter from the U.N. Secretary General responding to Russian objections. S/2015/696

  3. 10 Sep 2015 Letter from president of the U.N. Security Council approving the Secretary General's plan. S/2015/697

  4. 9 Nov 2015 Letter from the U.N. Secretary General saying that the JIM would be "fully operational" on 13 Nov 2015. S/2015/854.

  5. First Report of JIM, S/2016/142, (12 Feb 2016).

  6. Second Report of JIM, S/2016/530, (10 June 2016).

  7. Third Report of JIM, S/2016/738, (24 August 2016).

  8. Fourth Report of JIM, S/2016/888, (21 October 2016).

  9. U.N. Security Council extends JIM until 17 Nov 2017. Resolution S/RES/2319, (17 Nov 2016).

  10. Fifth Report of JIM, S/2017/131, (13 Feb 2017).

  11. Sixth Report of JIM, S/2017/552, (23 June 2017).

  12. Seventh Report of JIM, S/2017/904, (26 Oct 2017). (The JIM "is confident that the Syrian Arab Republic is responsible for the release of sarin at Khan Shaykhun on 4 April 2017.")

Links to U.N. Reports on Human Rights in Syria

The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has a Commission of Inquiry on human rights violations in Syria, which has written Reports. (See the "DOCUMENTATION" section of the Commission webpage, and also see the "All documents..." link at the bottom of that section.) See also the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights webpage on Syria.

On 10 March 2015, The Syrian Center for Policy Research posted a report on the damages during four years of the Syrian civil war, titled "SCPR Alienation and Violence Report 2014", SCPR.   Copy at ReliefWeb;   UNRWA;   UNDPI.org.

Death Toll in Syria

From
18 Mar 2011
Until
Total
Dead
Death
Rate
Death Rate
per 30 days
Citation
15 Nov 2012 39,112 SOHR
...
31 Aug 2013 110,371 SOHR
30 Sep 2013 115,206 4835/30 days 4835/30 days SOHR
30 Oct 2013 120,296 5090/30 days 5090/30 days SOHR
1 Dec 2013 125,835 5539/32 days 5193/30 days SOHR
30 Dec 2013 130,433 4598/29 days 4756/30 days SOHR
31 Jan 2014 136,227 5794/32 days 5431/30 days SOHR
14 Feb 2014 140,041 3814/14 days 8173/30 days SOHR
31 Mar 2014 150,344 10,303/45 days 6869/30 days SOHR
18 May 2014 162,402 12,058/48 days 7536/30 days SOHR
8 July 2014 171,509 9107/51 days 5357/30 days DailyStar
20 Aug 2014 180,215 8706/43 days 6074/30 days GlobalPost
30 Nov 2014 202,354 22,139/102 days 6511/30 days SOHR
31 Dec 2014 206,712 4358/31 days 4217/30 days SOHR
31 Jan 2015 209,395 2683/31 days 2596/30 days SOHR
5 Feb 2015 210,060 SOHR
28 Feb 2015 213,407 4075/28 days 4366/30 days see below
14 Mar 2015 215,518 2111/14 days 4524/30 days SOHR
14 Apr 2015 220,271 4753/31 days 4600/30 days SOHR
31 May 2015 229,312 9041/47 days 5771/30 days see below
8 June 2015 230,618 SOHR
30 June 2015 234,468 5247/30 days see below
5 Aug 2015 240,381 5913/36 days 4928/30 days SOHR
31 Aug 2015 244,431 4830/31 days 4674/30 days see below
30 Sep 2015 248,650 4219/30 days 4219/30 days SOHR
15 Oct 2015 250,124 SOHR
31 Oct 2015 252,865 4215/31 days 4079/30 days SOHR
30 Nov 2015 257,047 4182/30 days 4182/30 days SOHR
31 Dec 2015 261,931 4633/31 days 4483/30 days see below
31 Jan 2016 266,611 4680/31 days 4529/30 days SOHR
22 Feb 2016 271,138 SOHR
29 Feb 2016 272,300 4802/29 days 4968/30 days see below
14 Mar 2016 273,520 SOHR
31 Mar 2016 274,977 2658/31 days 2572/30 days SOHR
30 Apr 2016 278,093 3116/30 days 3116/30 days SOHR
25 May 2016 282,283 SOHR
31 May 2016 283,237 4927/31 days 4768/30 days SOHR
30 June 2016 288,060 4823/30 days 4823/30 days SOHR
31 July 2016 292,854 4794/31 days 4639/30 days SOHR
31 Aug 2016 297,329 4475/31 days 4331/30 days SOHR
30 Sep 2016 301,015 3686/30 days 3686/30 days SOHR
31 Oct 2016 305,542 4527/31 days 4381/30 days SOHR
30 Nov 2016 309,496 3954/30 days 3954/30 days SOHR
12 Dec 2016 312,001 SOHR
31 Dec 2016 312,613 3117/31 days 3016/30 days SOHR
31 Jan 2017 314,614 2001/31 days 1936/30 days SOHR
28 Feb 2017 317,468 2854/28 days 3058/30 days SOHR
12 Mar 2017 321,358 SOHR
31 Mar 2017 323,090 2826/31 days 2735/30 days SOHR and below
30 Apr 2017 325,876 2786/30days 2786/30 days SOHR
31 May 2017 328,187 2311/31days 2236/30 days SOHR
30 June 2017 330,469 2282/30days 2282/30 days SOHR
31 July 2017 332,946 2477/31days 2397/30 days SOHR
31 Aug 2017 335,653 2707/31days 2620/30 days SOHR
30 Sep 2017 338,708 3055/30 days 3055/30 days SOHR
31 Oct 2017 342,077 3369/31 days 3260/30 days SOHR
30 Nov 2017 344,539 2462/30days 2462/30 days SOHR
31 Dec 2017 346,478 1939/31days 1876/30 days SOHR
31 Jan 2018 ? ?/31 days ?/30 days see below
28 Feb 2018 2595/28 days 2780/30 days SOHR
31 Mar 2018 3673/31 days 3555/30 days SOHR
30 Apr 2018 1370/30 days 1370/30 days SOHR
31 May 2018 1165/31 days 1127/30 days SOHR
30 June 2018 1706/30 days 1706/30 days SOHR
31 July 2018 1776/31 days 1719/30 days SOHR
31 Aug 2018 840/31 days 813/30 days SOHR
30 Sep 2018 1059/30 days 1059/30 days SOHR
31 Oct 2018 1048/31 days 1014/30 days SOHR
30 Nov 2018 1180/30 days 1180/30 days SOHR
31 Dec 2018 1506/31 days 1457/30 days SOHR
31 Jan 2019 891/31 days 862/30 days SOHR
28 Feb 2019 609/28 days 652/30 days SOHR
31 Mar 2019 955/31 days 924/30 days SOHR
/days /30 days
/days /30 days

Source: Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Sometimes the SOHR posts a death toll only in its Arabic-language webpages, and then I cite a news source for a translation into the English language. Beginning February 2014, more information may be available in my essays.

From 1 February 2014 to 31 March 2014, there were 14,117 dead in 59 days, which corresponds to an average death rate of 7178 dead/30 days. From 1 February 2014 to 18 May 2014, there were 26,175 dead in 107 days, which corresponds to an average death rate of 7339 dead/30 days. As shown in the table, the death rate peaked in early Feb 2014 at 8173/30 days. This high death rate may have been caused by intense fighting before the Geneva2 negotiations ended on 15 Feb, as each party tried to capture as much territory as possible, prior to a possible ceasefire. It is ironic that peace negotiations may have caused a killing spree.

From August 2014 through December 2015, the SOHR sometimes posted only a monthly death toll, not the cumulative death toll since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in March 2011: On 1 Jan 2015, the SOHR announced that 76021 had died in Syria during 2014. Adding that number to the death total announced for 30 Dec 2013 gave a new total of 206,454, which implies 4100 for the month of December 2014. But on 8 Jan 2015, the SOHR announced that 4358 had died during Dec 2014, an increase of 258. There is no explanation for this small discrepancy. I decided to use the greater number in the above table, because these death tolls are known to be smaller than the actual number. On 7 Feb 2015, SOHR released a new cumulative death toll from March 2011.

my estimates for cumulative totals
to end of a month in 2015

The SOHR issued a cumulative death toll of 210,060 dead from the beginning of the Syrian civil war in March 2011 until 5 Feb 2015. Then SOHR said 4075 people died during February 2015, an average rate of 145/day. Interpolating, approximately 3347 people died in the 23 days between 6 Feb 2015 and 28 Feb 2015. That means approximately 213,407 people died during the Syrian civil war from the beginning in March 2011 to 28 Feb 2015.

On 1 June 2015, the most recent death toll published by SOHR since the Syrian civil war began on 18 March 2011 was for the interval that ended on 14 April 2015: at least 220,271 dead. SOHR. The death rate during April 2015 was 4458/30 days, which is 149/day. From 15 April to 30 April at the rate of 149/day gives an approximate total of 2384. Adding 2384 during the last half of April plus 6657 during May to 220,271 gives a new total of 229,312 dead from the beginning of the civil war in March 2011 through 31 May 2015.

The SOHR reported 230,618 dead from 18 March 2011 through 8 June 2015. A total of 5247 people died in Syria during June 2015, for an average rate of 175/day. During 9-30 June (22 days) at 175/day gives an approximate total of 3850. Adding 3850 during 9-30 June to 230,618 gives a new total of 234,468 from the beginning of the civil war in March 2011 through 30 June 2015.

The SOHR reported 240,381 dead from 18 March 2011 through 5 Aug 2015. A total of 4830 people died in Syria during August 2015, for an average rate of 156/day. We can estimate that 780 people died during 1-5 Aug 2015. Adding 240,381 and 4830, then subtracting 780 gives a new total of 244,431 from the beginning of the civil war in March 2011 through 31 Aug 2015.

For the end of the month totals for 30 Sep 2015 through 30 Nov 2015, I simply added the monthly total reported by SOHR to the cumulative total at the end of the previous month.

There are two ways to obtain a 31 Dec 2015 cumulative total:
  1. I added the cumulative total for 31 Dec 2014 to the 55,219 dead during the year 2015 that was reported by SOHR, to obtain a new cumulative total of 261,931.
  2. I added the cumulative total for 30 Nov 2015 to the 4633 dead during Dec 2015 that was reported by SOHR, to obtain a new cumulative total of 261,680.
These two new cumulative totals are remarkably similar. I used the higher of the two values, because SOHR admits their data are less than the actual number of deaths.

my estimates for cumulative totals
to end of a month in 2016

To obtain the end of the month cumulative total for January 2016, I simply added the 4680 dead during January 2016, reported by SOHR, to my estimated cumulative total for 31 Dec 2015.

The SOHR reported 4802 dead during the 29 days of February 2016. That is an average of 166/day. As mentioned in the table above, SOHR reported a cumulative total of 271,138 dead up to 22 Feb 2016. So for the 7 days from 23 to 29 February, there were probably 166 × 7, or 1162 dead. Adding 1162 to 271,138 gives a new cumulative total of 272,300.   But notice that cumulative totals for 29 Feb and 31 Jan 2016 show that 5689 (i.e., 272,300 minus 266,611) people died during February 2016, when the SOHR data show that only 4802 people died. Either the cumulative total on 31 Jan 2016 is too low, the cumulative total on 29 Feb 2016 is too high, or the number of people who died during Feb 2016 is higher than 4802. This small discrepancy — 887 dead in February — illustrates the uncertainty in death tolls in Syria.

The SOHR reported a cumulative total of 273,520 dead on 14 March 2016. The SOHR reported 2658 dead during the 31 days of March 2016, which is an average of 85.7/day. So I estimate 1457 dead in the 17 days from 15 March to 31 March. Adding 273,520 and 1457 gives a cumulative total of 274,977 on 31 March 2016.

The table above shows a death toll of 4968 dead/30 days during February 2016, mostly before the ceasefire began. In March 2016, during the ceasefire, there were only 2572 dead/30 days. Clearly, the cessation of hostilities agreement has saved approximately 2400 lives in 30 days.

On 1 May 2016, the SOHR reported 3116 dead during April, which I added to the cumulative estimate of 274,977 dead at the end of March, to obtain a new cumulative total of 278,093.

At the end of 25 May 2016, there was a cumulative total of 282,283 people dead since the civil war began in March 2011. On 1 June, the SOHR announced 4927 deaths during the 31 days of May 2016, which is an average of 159/day. So approximately 6 × 159 died during 26-31 May, which is an additional 954 deaths since 25 May. Adding 282,283 and 954 gives a new cumulative total of 283,237 at the end of May 2016.

Beginning in June 2016, SOHR reported only the monthly death tolls, so I simply added the monthly toll to the cumulative total for the previous month.

SOHR did not promptly report a monthly total for December 2016. Instead, SOHR reported a total of 49,742 people killed during the year 2016. Adding 49,742 to the total of 261,931 on 31 Dec 2015 gives a new cumulative total of 311,673.   But there is a discrepancy. On 13 Dec 2016, the SOHR reported a cumulative total of 312,001 dead, which is already 328 more than the 311,673 end of year number, without counting those who died during 13-31 December. I estimate that at 3000 deaths/30 days, approximately 1900 deaths occurred in the 19 days during 13-31 December. That estimate suggests a cumulative total of 313,901 dead, which makes the 311,673 end of year number is too small by approximately 2228, a discrepancy of about 0.7%. Given the significant undercounting of deaths by SOHR, this error is negligible.

Later, the SOHR posted a monthly total of 3117 dead during December 2016.   Adding 3117 to the number of deaths at the end of November 2016 gives a new cumulative total of 312,613. I think this is the best estimate of the total number of deaths during the Syrian civil war.

my estimates for cumulative totals
to end of a month in 2017-18

When I add my estimated 28 February 2017 cumulative total in the table above to the SOHR death toll for the month of March, I obtain a total of 320,294, which is less than SOHR's cumulative total for 12 March 2017. Clearly, some kind of adjustment is necessary. I decided to use SOHR's cumulative total for 12 March 2017, plus an interpolated 1732 dead during 13-31 March. I obtained the 1732 value from (19/31) × 2826.

The English-language webpages at SOHR did not include a death toll for the month of January 2018.


Delivery of Chemical Weapons
by Syria to OPCW

Delivery Nr. Date
2014
Priority 1 Total Delivered
1 7 Jan ? 3%
2 27 Jan ? 4%
3 10 Feb 5% 11%
4 26 Feb ? ?
5 28 Feb ? 26%
6 7 Mar ? 29%
7 9 Mar 23% ?
8 14 Mar ? ?
9 17 Mar ? 46%
10 20 Mar 35% 49%
11 ? Mar ? ?
12 4 Apr ? ?
13 10 Apr ? ?
14 13 Apr 57% 65%
15 16 Apr ? ?
16 18 Apr ? ?
17 22 Apr 89% 86%
18 24 Apr 96% 92%
19 23 June 100% 100%

Sources: see citations in my essays on Syria.   On 21 April 2014, I sent an e-mail to the OPCW Media Office asking for the date of the 11th delivery, but there was no reply.

OPCW Deadlines

Action Deadline Date Status
Declare all chemicals 27 Oct 2013 PASS
Deliver all priority 1 chemicals 31 Dec 2013 FAIL: zero delivered
Deliver all chemicals 5 Feb 2014 FAIL: 4% delivered
Destroy all production facilities 15 March 2014 FAIL
Deliver all chemicals 27 April 2014 FAIL: 92% delivered
Destroy all chemicals 30 June 2014 FAIL

Sources of deadlines:
  1. The 27 Oct 2013 deadline for declaring all chemical weapons is in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118, Annex I, ¶(1)(b) (27 Sep 2013).

  2. The 31 Dec and 5 Feb deadlines for delivery of chemical weapons are in OPCW document EC-M-34/DEC.1, ¶2(a) (15 Nov 2013). U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118, §7, requires compliance with these OPCW deadlines.

  3. The 15 March deadline for destruction of all production facilities is in OPCW document EC-M-34/DEC.1, ¶2(b) (15 Nov 2013).

  4. After Syria failed to meet the OPCW deadlines for delivery of its chemical weapons, on 21 February 2014 Syria proposed modified deadlines. After some negotiation with OPCW, on 26 Feb, the revised deadline for delivery of all chemical weapons was 27 April.

  5. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118, §(1)(c), requires "complete the elimination of all chemical weapons material and equipment in the first half of 2014" (i.e., on or before 30 June 2014).
In April 2014, in my sixth essay on Syria, I predicted that, after all of the chemical weapons were destroyed, no one would care that Assad substantially missed deadlines for delivery of his declared chemical weapons.

All of Syria's chemical weapons production facilities were supposed to be destroyed before 15 March 2014. In June 2018, the final two chemical weapons production facilities were destroyed, as reported in United Nations Security Council document S/2018/745.

Negotiations in Geneva

The third U.N. Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, frequently refers to the Nth round of negotiations, so I posted a table of all the rounds of negotiations in Geneva.

Round Nr. Dates Accomplishment
24-31 Jan 2014
10-15 Feb 2014 frustration
1 29 Jan - 3 Feb 2016 opposition refuses to negotiate until ceasefire in Syria
2 14-24 March 2016 De Mistura issues paper on 12 Points of Commonalities
3 13-27 April 2016 opposition (HNC) walks out on 18 April
4 23 Feb to 3 March 2017 agree on agenda in Resolution 2254
5 23-31 March 2017 nothing
6 16-19 May 2017 nothing
7 10-14 July 2017 nothing
8 28 Nov to 14 Dec 2017 nothing
9 25-26 January 2018 nothing



Copyright 2014-2019 by Ronald B. Standler
this document is at   http://www.rbs0.com/syria.htm
first posted 2 April 2014, revised 30 April 2019

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